Blog Archives: January, 2010
$18.9 billion
I don’t write about political issues very often on my blog, but this is one that’s been nagging at me for a while.
Earlier this month, Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer issued a pre-budget reporting predicting the Federal government would have an $18.9 billion structural deficit in 2013-14. Government ministers say the number’s not right, though the PBO has been good at predictions in the past. Regardless, there’s going to be a big deficit.
What bugs me is not that there’s going to be a big deficit. Rather, I’m annoyed at the idea that we can eliminate such a deficit by tightening our belts a little bit. Getting rid of an $18.9 billion deficit will be very difficult. Neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals is willing to mention tax increases (and understandably, as voters don’t like the idea of paying more). But it’s something that should at least be in the discussion as we choose from a variety of unpalatable options.
$18.9 billion is a lot of money. With the large numbers thrown around over the last couple of years in stimulus spending in Canada, the USA, and around the world, it’s easy to lose sight of how much a $18.9 billion deficit really is. Remember, that’s $18.9 billion in the hole, every year.
I did a little bit of research and found some examples of how much $18.9 billion is. I’m not promoting any one of these options — many of them are ridiculous on purpose — I’m just using them to exemplify how big that number is.
Click on the graphic below for a high quality PDF version.
If you find an error in my calculations or better data, please let me know and I’ll be happy to correct it.
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Doubtful Sound
Doubtful Sound, viewed from atop the Wilmot Pass Te Anau is the gateway to Fiordland, a mountainous region on the west coast of the south island of New Zealand which features many fjords opening onto the Pacific Ocean.
The Stebila Family on Doubtful Sound My parents and I took a day cruise on Doubtful Sound, one of the largest fjords in the area. It’s very remote: we took an hour boat ride across a first lake (Lake Manapouri) and then a bus through a mountain pass (Wilmot Pass) to reach the sound.
Looking down Crooked Arm Doubtful Sound features mountains diving right into the water and continuing to the bottom several hundred metres below. The fjords were gouged out by glaciers in the last ice age; the tops of the glaciers reached nearly to the tops of the mountains. When the glaciers melted, sea level rose to the point that it’s at now.
The remains of tree slides Except in the rare steepest parts, the lower parts of the mountains are covered with greenery of all types. You’ll see the occasional scar on the side of the mountain, however, as in the picture at left. These are the result of occasional avalanches — but of trees, not of rocks or snow. 
Revegetation after a tree slide When an earthquake happens, sometimes the trees will lose their footing on the very steep slopes and just centimetres of topsoil, and come careening down the mountain into the water. At left, the remains of a tree avalanche from the last year or two. At right, growth in another area about 10-20 years after a tree avalanche.
Seals and waves Out at the end of Doubtful Sound, as it meets the Tasman Sea in the Pacific Ocean, we came across a little island that’s home to a bunch of seals. They happily ignored us and kept on enjoying the rare sun in an area with more than 200 days of rain annually totally 7.6m of rain.
Manapouri power station at West Arm On the way back, we stopped in at the Manapouri power station. This hydroelectric station supplies more than 10% of New Zealand’s hydroelectric power, and most of the station’s output goes to a single aluminum smelter. The Manapouri power station was also the reason the Wilmot Pass was built: the machinery came in by boat through Doubtful Sound and then along the Wilmot Pass. 
Interior of Manapouri Power Station To reach the machine room where power is generated, we had to take a 2km gently spiralling access tunnel 193m underground. Water falls straight down from Lake Manapouri, spins the turbines, and then travels a few more kilometres horizontally to exit into Doubtful Sound. An impressive bit of engineering to say the least!
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Bungy jumping video
Here’s the video of me doing my bungy jump in New Zealand.
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Visiting Middle Earth
New Zealand popped onto the map of many geeky people (such as myself) with the filming of The Lord of the Rings trilogy there a few years ago. Many of the places where filming occurred are in far-off, remote locations, but many are also relatively accessible. The road atlas I got for our trip also indicated filming locations throughout New Zealand, so I made an effort to stop at ones near where we were. Sometimes it was difficult to find the actual location, or to see how it actually was from the movie. Here’s what we found.
The Arrow River This is the Arrow River, in Arrowtown on the south island. In The Fellowship of the Ring, it played the role of the Ford of Bruinen, the river that protected the lands of Elrond, which Arwen uses to wash away the Ringwraiths when they are chasing her and Frodo back to Rivendell.
The Kawaru River This is the Kawaru River, outside of Queenstown. In The Fellowship of the Ring, it played the role of the great Anduin River, which the fellowship canoed down before splitting up. 
The Kawaru River In order to get these shots of the river, we had to drive along a dirt road etched out of a cliff above the river. The road was wide enough for one care, but just barely, so it made it very exciting when another car came along (the road also led to a winery, so we met a few cars along the way). Mom did not like this road.
View of Red Crater and Mt. Ngauruhoe When I visited New Zealand back in 2007 with Lana and Gus, we hiked the Tongariro Crossing, which is a volcanic region in the north island. It also served as the inspiration for Mount Doom and Mordor in The Return of the King, and you can see how evil it looks, even in good weather.
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Queenstown, New Zealand
Flying into Queenstown over Lake Wakatipu On Boxing Day, my parents and I flew to New Zealand for a week of driving around the south island. Our first stop was in Queenstown, a small city in the south west of the south island and one of the prime tourist destinations. Queenstown is nestled in a valley between mountains and a lake, and at left you can see the spectacular view we had flying into Queenstown.
Lake Wakatipu in Queenstown 
In a tree, Queenstown 
Mom at the restaurant where we ate brunch in Queenstown 
A steamer sailing out of Queenstown
Ready to jump off of Kawaru bridge Queenstown is a bit of an “adventure sports” destination, so one of the main things I planned to do in Queenstown was go bungy jumping. Mom was, as you can imagine, thrilled about seeing her only son dive off a bridge with only a little bungy cord holding onto him. We went to the Kawaru bridge AJ Hackett bungy jump location, which was the first commercial bungy jumping location in the world. 
Diving head first into a river 43m below It’s a historic bridge 43m metres above the Kawaru river. I guess 43m isn’t too high, really, as far as bungy jumps go, but it was still high enough for me. I wasn’t at all scared when we arrived or when I was getting geared up for the jump. But standing on the edge of the platform and looking down to see a blurry (no glasses allowed during bungy jumping) river a long way below, a bit of fear kicked in: Nature did not intend for me to jump 43m and live. Fortunately for me, the company I paid good money to did intend for me to live after jumping 43m. Even knowing all that, I couldn’t help but scream as I was in free fall.
Oh no, he's falling!
For good measure, they dunked me in the river up to my shoulders. That was a bit of a surprise. I knew that they were going to do this — they asked me about it while getting me set up — but the river still came up so quickly and I was dunked and popped back up before I knew it. 
Me on the recovery boat Then there was bit of bouncing up and down, which didn’t feel like much motion to me but was quite a lot of motion when you watch it from the side, and scrambling onto the recovery boat in the river below.
Bungy jumper dunked into Kawaru river With the exception of a bit of water up my nose, I survived the incident unscathed. More importantly, so did my mom, and there’s photographic evidence to prove it: in the picture above at left (“Oh no, he’s falling!”), you can see my dad and mom next to each other (dad in the white hat, mom in the pink hat) and mom holding a camera up to take a picture just as I’ve jumped.
My first bungy jump was great. I’ll try it again some time. Mom will probably request that I not tell her until after I’ve done it.
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2009 Year in Review
Around this time of the year, it’s customary to publish “best of…” articles. Inspired by my friend Cecilia, here’s a look back at big events in my life in 2009. Writing this post, it’s amazing how much happened in 2009. Will 2010 be as crazy? Only time will tell…
January: Caribbean cruise January: My parents and I spent New Year’s Eve in Florida and then took a Caribbean cruise on the Queen Mary 2. Returning to Waterloo, I celebrated my 30th birthday and submitted my thesis a few days later.
February: Waterloo in winter February: Relaxing from the stress of a cruise, I spent February wrapping things up in Waterloo and made a short visit to Calgary.
March: Brisbane March: I successfully defended my PhD thesis, completed my PhD, and celebrated my time in Waterloo with a great party at the Grad House. I spent a week in Windsor and then flew to Brisbane to start my new postdoc position at the Queensland University of Technology.
April: New apartment April: Getting settled in Brisbane, I moved into my new apartment. I started off the running season with my first 10km race in years.
May: Gold Coast May: Deciding to do run a half-marathon in August, I started my running training, and did some cycling around Brisbane with friends. I went to the beach on the Gold Coast as well.
June: Running along the Brisbane River June: My running training continued with a well-developed routine with lots of runs along the river. I started exploring the city more, visiting a number of art galleries and welcoming Devin to Brisbane.
July: Whale watching July: More running. I presented a paper at a conference in Brisbane and went whale watching off the Pacific coast.
August: Brisbane half marathon August: I ran in the Brisbane half marathon, taking more than 13 minutes off my previous time. It was a yummy month too: I discovered a great recipe for chocolate chip cookies.
September: Dust storm September: I stepped up the running training to prepare for the Toronto marathon in October. Brisbane was hit by a spectacular dust storm, and I saw a great fireworks show featuring jets lighting fuel on fire.
October: PhD graduation October: I flew back to Canada for a visit, having a graduation party in Windsor, running a marathon in Toronto, spending a week in Waterloo, and graduating from my PhD. Skipped another ocean to present at a conference in Italy and see the ruins in Pompeii.
November: Singapore November: On my way back to Australia, I stopped in steamy Singapore to give a talk and visit Lana and Bill. Enjoyed being home after a month of travelling.
December: Christmas in Australia December: I redesigned my website and published my first Internet standard. My parents flew down for Christmas and we spent some time around Brisbane, visiting a koala sanctuary and the beach. Decorated our palm tree for Christmas. We flew over to the south island of New Zealand on Boxing Day, where I bungy jumped, kayaked a fjord, and hiked a glacier.
