Blog Archives: May, 2003
Site Update
An editorial comment: I’ve been reimplementing the design of the site in hopes of getting it to render better on Internet Explorer. I know that there are still some problems, but I’m getting some screenshots of the display (thanks Laura!) and will hopefully fix it soon. In the meantime, you might try a browser that renders CSS properly, plus does useful things like blocking pop-up windows.
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Scan this page
In case you want a hard-copy link to my web site (just so you don’t lose it!), here’s a barcode:
Barcode for www.douglas.stebila.ca
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Exponential Progress
Ray Kurzweil, author and futurist, writes about the accelerating rate of change in our world.
(Warning: The article is a reprint from a business-magazine, so it’s not too theoretical.)
He argues that we are entering an age of acceleration. In fact, we’ve been living on an exponential change curve, but we’ve just been on the flat part for a really long time; now we’re entering the curved portion. The argument for exponential growth is based on the law of accelerating returns, a technological feedback loop: the tools we develop at one stage are the tools we use to develop the technologies for the next stage, and then we use those new tools again. Moore’s Law is a special case of this law of accelerating returns.
I found the following quote particularly interesting:
The whole 20th century, because we’ve been speeding up to this point, is equivalent to 20 years of progress at today’s rate of progress, and we’ll make another 20 years of progress at today’s rate of progress equal to the whole 20th century in the next 14 years, and then we’ll do it again in seven years. And because of the explosive power of exponential growth, the 21st century will be equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at today’s rate of progress, which is a thousand times greater than the 20th century, which was no slouch to change.
This statement leads me to a few questions.
First, what is this progress? Kurzweil’s definition is “to move forward or develop to a higher, better, more advance stage.” Pretty vague. I’m sure there are economic indices that could measure progress, but I have doubts about the suitability of economic metrics as societal measures. Is progress the number of hours of housework? the number of SUVs per capita? number of hours of freetime per week? availiability of drinking water? average lifespan? None of those metrics could ever improve on an exponential scale for any prolonged period of time before stabilising. And some (Mr. Ducharme?) would argue that economic progress is not unbounded. What measure of progress could improve exponentially for an arbitrary, unbounded period of time? Or am I missing the point – would any measure of progress itself become obsolete?
Second, will we be able to adapt to “20,000 years of progress” in the 21st century? Grandpa Simpson complains about these kids with their rock and roll and new ideas. Can any generation adapt throughout its life? If society is about to enter the curved portion of the exponential curve, and we have grown up at this critical point, are we better suited to continually adapt to increasing rates of change?
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Week 1: Compiling
My first week back in California has come to a close. How did I spend it? Well, most of it seemed to be spent compiling software.
Work has been more or less what I expected. I had to jump through the requisite paperwork hoops, but that’s all done now. My team has moved from work on OpenSSL to Netscape Security Services, part of the Mozilla project. The code is an order of magnitude more complex, and I don’t understand the build process at all. It took me a day to figure out how to convince Mozilla to compile (it’s a three-hour compile process on an 8-processor box, by the way), and another day to figure out how to link test programs against the shared object files. (Anyone know how to convince a Solaris compiler to link an executable against a shared object (.so) file?)
Enough geek talk, however. In April, I asked readers what they thought I should do about the car situation and my commute from Santa Clara to Mountain View. Much to Patrick and Cecilia’s common chagrin, I am not driving a Toyota Prius but a Chevrolet Cavalier.
Today, though, I picked up a bike at work (I’m borrowing a bike from a UW co-op student who is off-stream with me and left his bike in California over the summer) and found a route from work to home. I only stumbled onto US government land once. It took me 1.25 hours to find my way, and I wasn’t completely sure of where I was going. A bit too long to do each day, but I might do it once or twice a week. And the rest of the time I should be able to take the public transit for 20 minutes and then bike/rollerblade for another 20 to get to work.
After a summer of good solid exercise, perhaps I’ll get back in shape.
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A New CD
Sarah McLachlan Surfacing cover I just discovered today that the release date for Sarah McLachlan’s new CD (her first CD containing new material since 1997) is July 30. How exciting is that? Read more for details.
Actually, there is no release date for a new Sarah McLachlan CD. Since I’m nearly 3600 km away from Cecilia, she can’t kill me for this one. 
On a note of actual fact, I just discovered today that the talented singer/songwriter is also an Officer of the Order of Canada. I think that’s pretty cool.
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